wealth management
Dear clients and partners,
Global markets stepped into the first half of 2026 in anticipation of interest rate cuts by central banks, decrease in geopolitical tensions, as well as further rally in AI-related stocks.
Those who invest in Russian assets echoed global sentiment. With the 2026 year-end key interest rate forecast at 12%, the far end of the OFZ yield curve was among top market ideas. Heavy purchases were also seen in foreign currency bonds as investors not only bet on the ruble depreciation but also benefited from low-cost FX funding to increase the potential portfolio returns.
Everything comes at a price. After the Bank of Russia slowed its monetary policy easing with just 0.25 ppt cuts in June and July, some investors started to assume that the CBR might even raise the interest rate instead of cutting it further. These speculations sent the OFZ yields higher (and bonds prices lower) and resulted in margin calls.
Margin calls also occurred in the FX bonds segment, where brief CNY shortages translated into more expensive funding.
We started the year having a fair amount of long-term OFZ in the portfolio but avoiding an ‘all in for the 12 red’ exposure. On the one hand, this enabled us to show healthy portfolio performance in the beginning of the year; on the other hand, our portfolio duration was sound enough even against the backdrop of the market decline.
Russian stocks were of little appeal to us despite high ruble interest rates: our mixed portfolio exposure remained flat at 10% tops with a strong single issuer concentration.
As long as the key market drivers – interest rates and geopolitics – remain unchanged, we will maintain our view and will not increase our stocks exposure.
Two months into 2H26, we continue to maintain our exposure to long-term OFZ (10+ years), holding that even despite certain CBR stance tightening the regulator will proceed with the rate cutting cycle.
We are also positive at the prospects of foreign exchange bonds as we expect further ruble depreciation: for the past 6 months only, the RUB/CNY exchange rate, for one, decreased by 20%.
The Middle East crisis did spark oil price growth but brought no additional inflows to Russian oil and gas stocks. All we could see so far is back and forth flows reflecting the news waves on escalation and peace efforts.
We will increase our exposure to stocks when ruble interest rates continue to taper off.
Geopolitics will certainly remain in the spotlight, but we will be ready to change and increase risk exposure only against the back of specific agreements rather than the number of negotiations.
In conclusion, I would like to highlight our new milestone – the launch of RenCap’s first ETF. This is a high-yield bond exchange-traded fund, which enables retail investors to access our market expertise. The fund strategy is based on diversification and in-depth credit analysis of every single issuer in the portfolio.
We will keep you posted on our market view and ideas.
Sincerely yours,
